A delay in Saudi economic reforms, a shift in Saudi discourse, and an axis of neutrality in North Africa. To subscribe to this daily roundup, click here. Saudi Arabia’s “Vision 2030” undergoes a revision. “An internal document seen by the Financial Times labels the amended plan NTP 2.0 and adds: ’The timeline of the NTP will continue to 2020, but the plan requires implementation of objectives for 2025 and 2030.’ Importantly, the kingdom’s most closely watched reform effort, the partial privatisation of state oil monopoly Saudi Aramco, sits outside the NPT. No suggestion is made that the NTP’s redrafting will affect the initial public offering of 5 per cent of Saudi Aramco, planned for next year.” So does rhetoric toward Israel and Iran in Saudi media. A directive was reportedly issued to all Saudi media outlets calling for a “lightening of language” in discussions of the two countries. Four North African states adopt neutrality toward the crisis in the Gulf. A Washington Post report cites a combination of “fears of Continue Reading…
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Joseph Braude’s New and Noteworthy in Arab and Islamic Affairs, 9-7-17
Gulf states receive an offer of mediation from France and relay an offer of normalization to Israel. A German outlet signals a parting of the ways with Washington on Iran. To subscribe to this daily roundup by Joseph Braude, click here. French foreign ministry wades into the intra-GCC dispute: Paris announced the appointment of Bertrand Besancenot, a former ambassador to Saudi Arabia, as special envoy to media the dispute between Qatar on the one hand and Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, and Egypt on the other. Reuters notes that France has close ties with Egypt and the United Arab Emirates while also being a major arms supplier to Qatar and a key ally of Saudi Arabia. By comparison with the U.S., the French government has issued few and muted public statements about the crisis. Gulf states offer Israel an interim arrangement: The Wall Street Journal has reported that several Gulf states are offering to set up phone lines with Israel, permit Israeli businesses to engage in open commerce, and grant Continue Reading…
New and Noteworthy in Arab and Islamic Affairs, 9-6-17
A Qatari port to bypass Gulf sanctions, a massive war exercise in Israel’s north, and Israeli and Egyptian government spending on Jewish diaspora institutions. To subscribe to this daily roundup, click here. A new Qatari port inaugurated Tuesday aims to circumvent sanctions on the country by its GCC neighbors. “Closure of the Saudi border with Qatar and disruption to shipping routes via the UAE slashed Qatar’s imports by over a third from year-earlier levels in June and July,” Reuters reports. “Institutions in Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain have begun pulling money out of Qatari banks, threatening their balance sheets. … Hamad port spans 26 square kilometers and will have a capacity of 7.5 million containers a year with terminals built to receive livestock, cereals, vehicles and coastguard vessels.” Israel is in the midst of the largest military exercise on its northern border in two decades. The ten-day exercise, reports the Jewish Chronicle, “involves dozens of divisions and thousands of reserves and includes land, air and sea forces. .. [It Continue Reading…
New and Noteworthy in Arab and Islamic Affairs — 9-5-17
A grim verdict on the war on Syria, a thumbs down for Putin Syria policy by Russians, and problems ahead for Iraq post-ISIS. To subscribe to this daily roundup, click here. Assad has “won the war militarily,” says former U.S. Ambassador to Syria Robert Ford in the Los Angeles Times. “And I can’t see any prospect of the Syrian opposition being able to compel him to make dramatic concessions in a peace negotiation.” But Russians do not support President Vladimir Putin’s military intervention in Syria, according to a poll summarized in Newsweek. “The latest Levada poll shows that around a third of Russians (32 percent) fear Syria could repeat the mistakes of the Soviet-Afghan conflict—Moscow’s quintessential example of a long and grinding military stalemate that ended with 15,000 Soviet deaths and Moscow’s inglorious withdrawal in 1989. For that reason the war is often called the Soviet “Vietnam.” Meanwhile, in Baghdad, an ISIS defeat is poised to lay bare the frittering of the Iraqi state, according to a substantial report by Continue Reading…
Gulf States Rethink Their PR Wars
In August 17, UAE Foreign Minister Anwar Gargash tweeted an observation in Arabic about the standoff between Qatar on the one hand and Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, and Egypt on the other, now about to enter its fourth month. “The Qatar crisis is a hornet’s nest,” he wrote. “Its weapons are money and weak souls. It is vital to reevaluate the high price of mercenaries, consciences, and pens, which are costly to the Gulf and the region.” Gargash’s comment refers to the formidable investment of all parties in winning over public opinion, both within the Middle East and among the Gulf States’ Western allies. A memorable 2014 New York Times investigative report showed that American think tanks receive millions of dollars annually in contributions from GCC governments. The NYT named, among others, the Brookings Institution ($14.8 million from Qatar over four years) and the Center for Strategic and International Studies ($1 million from the UAE to build a new headquarters). More recent reporting from the UK describes $32 million Continue Reading…
New and Noteworthy in Arab and Islamic Affairs
The Gulf States rethink their PR wars, a former Israeli official calls for a U.S. strike on North Korea, and To subscribe to this daily roundup, click here. Joseph Braude in The American Interest on the heavy toll of the Gulf states’ war of words: “It could well be that Americans who take an interest in foreign policy—as opposed to the large “don’t know” category of the survey set—put little stock in PR campaigns. Instead, they follow the news, weigh conflicting viewpoints, and render an independent judgment. … The result is an American public assessment of the Gulf standoff that turns out to be fairly accurate. Al-Jazeera’s Arabic channel is a hub of extremist indoctrination. The UAE, for its part, has earned its reputation as an American ally … This offers two lessons to the GCC as a whole—and a further particular lesson for Qatar. First, if all parties to the conflict slashed their heavy spending on American influencers, the outcome would not change much, if at all. Second, if Qatar Continue Reading…
New and noteworthy in Arab and Islamic affairs, 9-3-17
A regime change agenda in Qatar acquires an emir-in-waiting, a fraught encounter between Turkish and American justice in Washington, and a new assessment of how to resuscitate failed states. To subscribe to this daily roundup, click here. Seth. D. Kaplan in The American Interest on rebuilding failed states today: “The U.S. government [should] break the habit of focusing on the central state, and come to better appreciate that the disaggregation of power is sometimes essential to stability. Partnering with local leaders based on a deeper understanding of local landscapes and actors is essential. Diplomacy, development, and defense (3D) will all need to … recognize the importance of focusing on a wide variety of actors across a landscape instead of just those jockeying for power in capitals; that tradeoffs between competing goals (for example, political order and competitive politics) is necessary; and that progress is liable to be incremental at best. In many cases, nascent local efforts to end conflicts and establish political order will need to be better protected from outside Continue Reading…
New and Noteworthy in Arab and Islamic affairs – 9-1-17
Apple bans Iranian apps, the UN heralds victory in Raqqa, and a Qatari opposition group emerges in London. Paul Pilar in The National Interest on the unintended consequences of Iran sanctions: “Apple is attempting to shut down apps developed by Iranians for use on iPhones inside Iran [because] sanctions prohibit Apple from selling its phones in Iran. Impeding the full use by Iranians of their iPhones does absolutely nothing to weaken the Iranian regime. … As with many of the U.S. sanctions, the overall effect on the Iranian economy is to weaken portions of that economy that are outside the regime and to strengthen the regime’s influence over other parts, including the economic activities of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.” The Guardian on a UN prediction that Raqqa will fall in October: “The last ISIS Islamic State stronghold in Syria, will fall by the end of October, allowing credible democratic elections to be held within a year, according to the UN special envoy for the country. Setting out a highly Continue Reading…
New and Noteworthy in Arab and Islamic Affairs – 8-31-17
New calculations in the Gulf on Iran’s nuclear deal, a new Iranian diplomatic play, and a double-edged sword in the war on ISIS. Arab Gulf States Institute’s Hussein Ibish on the implications of scrapping the Iranian nuclear deal: “Gulf Arab countries understand that the ideal scenario for Iranian hard-liners would be for the JCPOA to collapse in the near future, with Washington being blamed by most, if not all, of the international community. … Tehran would have reached the agreement and permanently undone the international sanctions regime under Obama, only to be freed from complying with its terms under Trump, with virtually no chance that the comprehensive sanctions, particularly as imposed by China and Russia, could be resurrected. [Accordingly, Gulf states have] urged the United States to rigorously enforce, but not scrap, the nuclear agreement.” “The Media Line” on Iran’s push for normalization with Arab Gulf states: “Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif used the Munich Security Conference on Sunday as a platform to reiterate calls for the Sunni Gulf Continue Reading…
New and Noteworthy on Arab and Islamic Affairs – 8-30-17
In today’s roundup, a stinging indictment of the Trump administration’s Iran policy and a new book on jihadist returnees to Europe. MEMRI: Trump has come to accept Iranian regional expansionism under the cover of the war on ISIS: “In the first three months of Trump’s term, Tehran was apprehensive about what his Iran policy would be. It significantly dialed back its provocations — both its verbal threats and its naval forays against U.S. vessels in the Gulf — and even cancelled the launch of a ballistic missile, removing the missile from its launching pad on the eve of Iran’s Revolution Day on February 10, after the Trump administration announced that Iran was being “put on notice.” … Three months later, Iran has changed its approach: It is stepping up its naval provocations; its anti-U.S. discourse is again in evidence — including the “Death to America” chant; and its verbal threats against the U.S. are increasing. Additionally, the same missile which was taken off the launching pad last February was launched on July 27, 2017, in disregard Continue Reading…
